Drought to Continue into 2008

La Nińa strengthened during October, making it likely that the Southeast will see below-average precipitation this winter.

November 18, 2007

WAKE COUNTY NC NEWS -- The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, has updated its U.S. winter weather outlook. NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecasters remain confident in their final forecast, predicting above average temperatures for much of the country, and below normal precipitation for the southern tier of the nation. For the country as a whole, NOAA's heating degree day forecast for December through February projects a 4.0 percent warmer winter than the 30-year normal, which is very similar to last winter.

Michael Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center said, "La Nińa strengthened during October, making it even more likely that the United States will see below-average precipitation in the already drought-stricken regions of the Southwest and the Southeast this winter. Recent sea surface temperatures indicate we have moderate La Nińa conditions in place over the equatorial Pacific which we expect to continue into early 2008."

On average, for December 2007 through February 2008, NOAA seasonal forecasters predict La Nińa favors drier than average conditions along the mid-Atlantic coast. The drought-plagued North Carolina and the Southeast is likely to remain drier than average due to La Nińa, while temperatures are expected to be above average. Snowfall for the region depends on other climate factors, which are difficult to anticipate more than one to two weeks in advance.

The U.S. winter outlook is produced by a team of scientists at the Climate Prediction Center in association with NOAA-funded partners. Scientists base this forecast on long-term climate trends and a variety of forecast tools from statistical techniques to extremely complex dynamical ocean-atmosphere coupled models and composites.

NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and information service delivery for transportation, and by providing environmental stewardship of our nation's coastal and marine resources.